Namibia’s diamond industry faces growing risks from newly introduced U.S. tariffs, compounding existing challenges of low demand and rising competition from lab-grown alternatives, the Bank of Namibia (BoN) has warned.
“The diamond market is already struggling due to low demand and competition from lab-grown diamonds. Now, with tariffs, the situation could worsen,” said Bank of Namibia Governor Johannes !Gawaxab.
While Namibia’s direct trade with the U.S. remains minimal, !Gawaxab cautioned that indirect effects—such as disruptions in commodity prices and financial markets—could hit the diamond sector hard.
He suggested that diamonds be considered for exemption from tariffs, as has been the case with uranium and gold.
“While the direct impact of U.S. tariffs on Namibia may appear minimal, indirect effects, particularly through the diamond industry, could be significant,” he said.
Trade data from 2022 to 2024 show fluctuating export volumes and varying levels of reliance on the U.S. market.
Uranium exports rose from N$11.3 billion in 2022 to N$15 billion in 2023, before dropping slightly to N$14.5 billion in 2024. U.S.-bound uranium exports fell to 0% in 2023 but recovered to 9.7% in 2024.
“Marble exports grew steadily from N$107 million in 2022 to N$263 million in 2023 and N$272 million in 2024. A significant portion of these exports went to the U.S., increasing from 62.1% in 2022 to 88.7% in 2024,” !Gawaxab said.
Rough diamond exports peaked at N$17.7 billion in 2023 before falling to N$11.9 billion in 2024. Yet, the U.S. share remained low, accounting for only 0.5% in 2022 and 0.2% in 2024.
Polished diamonds, however, maintained a larger U.S. share, rising from 10.7% in 2022 to 12.4% in 2024.
“Polished diamonds earned N$7.6 billion in 2022, N$7.1 billion in 2023, and declined to N$5.4 billion in 2024, with U.S. export shares at 10.7%, 11.1%, and 12.4%, respectively,” said !Gawaxab.
BoN also flagged the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) as a key concern. If tariff-free access is not extended, it could have ripple effects across sectors, including diamonds, marble, and manufacturing.
“Namibia’s exports to the U.S. have benefited from tariff-free access under the AGOA agreement. If we consider the broader macroeconomic implications, it is clear that sectors such as diamonds, marble, and manufacturing could face negative consequences,” said !Gawaxab.
He noted that marble exports—of which nearly 89% went to the U.S. in 2024—would be hit hardest.
A South African simulation projected a 0.7% GDP decline under a worst-case AGOA withdrawal scenario, which would also affect SACU revenues shared with Namibia.
He added that the next 90 days would be critical in understanding the global trajectory, with Namibia needing to prepare for continued uncertainty in global trade and financial markets.
This comes after a 21% tariff increase on Namibian exports to the United States, which is expected to drive up prices for American consumers and importers of products from Namibia.
The tariff scheme, announced earlier this month by U.S. President Donald Trump, is part of a broader strategy aimed at addressing perceived trade imbalances, protecting domestic industries, and countering wage suppression in the U.S. economy.
