Andrada Mining is forecast to increase annual tin production at its Uis mine to 1,872 tonnes by the 2029 financial year, driving projected earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to N$928.98 million (£42.2 million).
According to an updated research report by VSA Capital, the projected production growth will be supported by a fully funded ore sorting expansion at Uis, which is expected to increase contained tin output to 1,510 tonnes in FY2028 before reaching 1,872 tonnes in FY2029.
The expansion, combined with higher tin prices and the expiry of loss-making hedge contracts, is expected to significantly improve Andrada’s profitability over the next three financial years.
VSA Capital forecasts EBITDA of N$303.46 million (£13.8 million) in FY2027, rising to N$703.68 million (£32 million) in FY2028 before reaching N$928.98 million in FY2029.
The projections follow a strong financial performance during the first half of FY2027, when Andrada reported an 80% year-on-year increase in revenue to N$452.99 million (£20.6 million) for the six months ended 31 August 2026.
Gross profit increased more than fourfold to N$182.52 million (£8.3 million), while the company recorded a profit after tax of N$54.98 million (£2.5 million), reversing a loss of N$65.98 million (£3 million) in the corresponding period last year.
The improved performance was supported by a 13% increase in contained tin production to 576 tonnes, alongside a 57% rise in the realised tin price to US$52,131 per tonne.
VSA Capital said improved ore grades and recovery rates at Uis also contributed to the stronger operational and financial results.
“Andrada Mining (ATM LN) has reported a step change in profitability, with revenue up 80% to £20.6m, gross profit up 4.4x to £8.3m and EBITDA of £4.5m (£1.6m), as higher grades and recoveries lifted contained tin production 13% to 576t and the realised tin price rose 57% to US$52,131/t,” the report stated.
Further improvements in earnings are expected following the expiry of Andrada’s remaining tin hedge contracts in November 2026.
The contracts, covering 40 tonnes of tin per month at US$42,000 per tonne, resulted in realised losses of N$38.48 million (£1.75 million) during the first half of FY2027.
Their expiry will allow Andrada to benefit more fully from prevailing tin prices from December 2026, although future earnings will remain exposed to commodity price movements.
Meanwhile, the company is advancing its Lithium Ridge and Brandberg West projects through partner-funded exploration programmes.
At Lithium Ridge, Andrada’s partnership with SQM completed an expanded first-stage drilling programme covering 16,500 metres across 143 holes.
Surface sampling extended the mineralised strike by 50% to approximately nine kilometres, while subsequent drilling results returned lithium grades of up to 2.11% lithium oxide over approximately five metres.
At Brandberg West, initial ore sorting tests achieved tungsten recoveries of up to 91% and tin recoveries of up to 94%.
VSA Capital maintained its buy rating on Andrada Mining, setting a target share price of 16.2 pence (N$3.56), compared with the reported market price of 6.82 pence (N$1.50).
The broker said its valuation reflected the expected growth in tin production at Uis and potential opportunities from the company’s lithium projects.
However, it cautioned that commodity price fluctuations, operational challenges and regulatory developments in Namibia remained risks to the production and earnings forecasts.
