Namibia’s mining sector is projected to contract by 6.2% in 2026 as declining production, rising fuel prices and inflation put pressure on mining operations, despite stronger gold and uranium prices supporting export earnings.
According to the Chamber of Mines of Namibia’s September 2026 Monthly Mining Update, the Bank of Namibia has revised its mining sector growth forecast downwards from an earlier projected contraction of 2.2% to 6.2%, reflecting weaker production recorded during the year.
Chamber of Mines Chief Executive Officer Fabian Shaanika said rising operating costs and broader economic pressures were affecting the sector, although favourable commodity prices and planned mining investments continued to support its long-term prospects.
“Near-term cost and macroeconomic pressures are real, but firm gold and uranium prices and a strong project pipeline keep the outlook for Namibia’s mining sector positive,” Shaanika said.
He said it remained too early to determine the extent to which higher inflation and interest rates would offset the positive long-term fundamentals for gold, uranium and copper.
The Chamber identified rising fuel prices as a major cost pressure, with the average Brent crude oil price increasing by 28.5% month-on-month to US$116.8 per barrel in September amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Namibia’s annual inflation rate increased to 5.4% in September from 5.0% in August, while transport inflation reached 14.9%, contributing 2.2 percentage points to headline inflation.
Petrol and diesel prices increased by 30.4% over the same period, raising operating costs for mining companies and placing additional pressure on profit margins.
The Chamber said persistent inflation and elevated interest rates could also limit further gains in mineral prices.
Meanwhile, Namibia’s Mining Production Composite Index declined by 4% month-on-month in August, largely due to a 12% drop in diamond production.
Although uranium production increased by 8%, zinc by 27% and gold by 4%, these gains were insufficient to offset the decline in diamonds, which carry a larger weighting in the index.
Despite the weaker production outlook, mining continued to dominate Namibia’s export earnings.
Minerals accounted for 72% of domestic exports in August, valued at N$6.69 billion out of total exports of N$9.33 billion, compared with a 62% share in July.
Uranium exports increased by 438% month-on-month to N$3.36 billion, following the resumption of full production at the Husab mine in July after a planned maintenance shutdown in June.
The Chamber said higher average gold and uranium prices were expected to cushion the impact of weaker production volumes on export earnings and government revenue.
Although gold and tin prices declined month-on-month in September, year-to-date average mineral prices remained elevated, providing some support to the sector.
Looking ahead, the Chamber said Namibia’s medium- to long-term mining outlook remained positive, supported by a pipeline of new projects and mine expansions.
These include Bannerman Energy’s Etango Uranium Project, Reptile Uranium’s Tumas Uranium Project and Osino Resources’ Twin Hills Gold Project.
The ramp-up of production at Langer Heinrich and the Rosh Pinah RP2.0 expansion project are also expected to contribute to future mining output.
However, the Chamber cautioned that the sector’s ability to benefit from higher commodity prices and new investments would depend partly on the impact of rising operating costs and broader economic conditions.
