Namibia’s Orange Basin is set for a decisive year in 2026 as the country looks to convert a series of offshore oil and gas discoveries into commercially viable developments, according to Wood Mackenzie.
In its outlook on Sub-Saharan Africa’s upstream sector, the research firm said Namibia has recorded nearly four years of exploration success in the Orange Basin, but now faces the more complex task of moving from discovery to execution.
Wood Mackenzie said 2026 will need to deliver tangible progress towards commercialisation at one or more projects if momentum in the basin is to be sustained.
The firm noted that several of Namibia’s flagship offshore developments remain uncertain, with key investment decisions, fiscal agreements and regulatory approvals still outstanding. Without progress on these fronts, project timelines risk further delays.
The Mopane project was identified as being at a critical juncture, with its development strategy yet to be finalised. Wood Mackenzie said decisions are still required on whether to prioritise the appraised north-west area or the south-east, which may hold stronger oil potential.
“The choice between a smaller fast-track development and a larger, more complex FPSO-based project also remains unresolved,” the firm said.
According to Wood Mackenzie, the Venus project risks being commercially stalled if outstanding technical and fiscal issues are not resolved. The firm said a final investment decision by the end of 2026 will depend on approval of a field development plan, agreement on fiscal terms with the Namibian government and the granting of environmental clearances.
Any delays in these processes could push a final investment decision into 2027 or later, it added.
Wood Mackenzie also commented on the Kudu gas project, saying the recent Kharas well did not deliver a definitive breakthrough, but supported continued appraisal rather than an immediate commitment to a gas-to-power development.
The firm said BW Energy remains responsible for managing ongoing work on the project.
Wood Mackenzie said the outcomes of these projects in 2026 will be central to determining whether Namibia’s Orange Basin can transition from a successful exploration province into a commercially producing offshore basin.
