Namibia’s offshore oil discoveries are set to reshape regional exports and global tanker demand, according to global brokerage firm Poten & Partners.
The firm noted that major finds in the Orange Basin by TotalEnergies and Galp could deliver first oil by 2029.
Galp’s Mopane discovery may produce about 240,000 barrels per day (b/d) using two floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) units, while TotalEnergies’ Venus field is projected to pump 150,000 b/d from a single FPSO.
Independent estimates suggest Namibia’s offshore output could exceed 700,000 b/d by the mid-2030s if further projects materialise.
“Just like most other countries in West Africa (with the exception of Nigeria with its giant Dangote refinery complex), it is expected that Namibia will export virtually all its crude oil production. This could lead to a recovery of West African crude oil exports and stimulate ton mile demand for tankers,” Poten said in its report.
The brokerage explained that Namibia’s oil will likely be shipped mainly to Asian refineries, benefiting Suezmax tankers and potentially Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs).
“At the moment, Namibia, located on the west coast of Southern Africa, between Angola and South Africa, does not produce any oil, but a number of major offshore oil discoveries could change that over the next decade,” the report stated.
Poten further highlighted Namibia’s petroleum potential, pointing to geological similarities with offshore Brazil and West Africa.
It noted that salt-sealed pre-salt formations that preserved large hydrocarbon deposits in Brazil and Angola also extend to Namibia, making the country an increasingly attractive exploration frontier.
If projects proceed as planned, Poten said Namibia could join Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana as a key oil exporter, reinforcing West Africa’s role in the global oil market.
