Namibia’s mining sector is set for a split performance over the medium term, with continued declines in diamond and gold output expected to weigh on the industry despite sustained growth in uranium production, the Bank of Namibia has warned.
According to the central bank’s March 2026 Economic Outlook, diamond mining will remain under pressure, with output projected to contract by 5.7% in 2026 and a further 5.3% in 2027, following a sharp 19.4% decline in 2025.
The Bank said the sustained downturn reflects weak global demand for natural diamonds and structural shifts in the international market, with 2026 projections revised down by 1.5 percentage points due to weaker-than-expected production.
In contrast, uranium is expected to anchor growth in the sector, with output forecast to rise by 7.9% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027, following a strong 27.0% expansion in 2025.
The Bank noted that the earlier surge in uranium production was driven by the restart of previously idled operations, with growth now expected to stabilise but remain supported by firm prices and continued global demand for nuclear energy.
The metal ores subsector is expected to contract sharply, with output projected to fall by 22.7% in 2026 after declining by 12.2% in 2025, before moderating to a 5.3% contraction in 2027.
The central bank attributed the decline largely to lower gold production, although higher gold prices are expected to partially offset the impact on export earnings.
Elsewhere, growth in other mining and quarrying activities is expected to slow, with output projected to increase by 2.7% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, down from 14.5% growth recorded in 2025.
While ongoing exploration activity continues to support the subsector, expansion is moderating as oil exploration projects remain in the appraisal phase, with final investment decisions anticipated in 2026.
The Bank warned that weaker performance in primary industries, particularly mining, is likely to weigh on overall economic growth, which is projected at 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027, following estimated growth of 1.7% in 2025.
