Namibia’s mining sector is expected to record weaker production growth in 2026 as declining output from key commodities weighs on the industry, although strong gold and uranium prices are expected to support export earnings, revenues and government receipts, the Chamber of Mines of Namibia says.
The Chamber said lower gold production following the transition of the Otjikoto mine from open-pit operations, subdued zinc output and continued weakness in the global diamond market are constraining mining production.
Uranium output has also been uneven, with a sharp decline recorded in June largely attributed to a planned maintenance shutdown at Swakop Uranium.
“The Chamber therefore views 2026 as a transitional year for the mining sector. While lower production is expected to constrain real mining growth in the immediate term, strong commodity prices should provide an important buffer through export earnings and revenues,” the Chamber said.
Despite weaker production volumes, the Chamber expects the value generated by the sector to remain comparatively resilient due to favourable commodity prices.
“Strong gold and uranium prices are expected to partly cushion the impact of lower production by supporting producer revenues, export earnings and fiscal contributions,” it said.
Uranium accounted for 22.3% of Namibia’s total exports in June, while gold contributed 11.8%, making the two commodities significant contributors to the country’s export earnings.
The Chamber said the sector is transitioning from mature and declining operations towards a broader production base supported by new mines and expansion projects.
The medium-term outlook is expected to improve as new projects advance and existing mines increase production.
The Twin Hills gold project and Etango uranium project are among developments expected to broaden Namibia’s mineral production base, while the continued ramp-up of Langer Heinrich and underground developments at Navachab and Otjikoto are expected to support future output.
“Over the medium term, the progression of new projects and expansion of existing operations is expected to strengthen and diversify Namibia’s mining industry,” the Chamber said.
Favourable prices for uranium, gold and several base metals are also expected to support investment, employment and export earnings as additional production capacity comes on stream.
The Chamber, however, said maintaining a competitive, stable and predictable operating environment will be critical to converting Namibia’s pipeline of mining investments into sustained economic growth.
