Subsea 7 Country Manager, Glenn Fraser, says Namibia’s ability to develop a lasting offshore services industry depends on securing several final investment decisions rather than relying on a single deep-water discovery.
Fraser said long-term continuity was required if the country hoped to build capacity in engineering, fabrication, logistics, marine operations and subsea systems.
“Reaching first oil requires US$20 to US$25 per barrel in capital expenditure spent inside Namibia, and continuity of projects is essential. This level of investment demands certainty that additional projects will follow,” he said.
He explained that Subsea 7 only enters the value chain after final investment approval, executing engineering, procurement and offshore construction. He cautioned that without predictable sequencing, industry players could not retain specialised staff or finance fabrication yards.
“This instability restricts contractors from building the local capabilities needed for long-term sector development. Without predictable sequencing of FIDs, contractors cannot hire long-term or make industrial investments,” he said.
Fraser added that localisation would remain limited if Namibia could not demonstrate at least two or three overlapping offshore developments, noting that deep-water projects typically extend four to five years from investment approval.
He said global contractors deploy vessels and technical teams only where markets offer reliable, multi-year work horizons. He cited Brazil and Guyana as examples of regions that sustain competitiveness through back-to-back investment pipelines.
Shell Namibia Country Chair and NAMPOA Chairperson, Eduardo Rodriguez, said Namibia’s offshore conditions present some of the deepest and most remote development challenges globally, involving water depths of 3,000 metres and distances of 200 to 300 kilometres offshore.
He noted that the first high-impact well drilling cost exceeded US$100 million, adding that investment decisions of US$10 to US$15 billion require a stable operating environment.
Rodriguez said Namibia was competing with mature jurisdictions including the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil and Guyana, and that fiscal predictability would be central to future project approval.
“Stability clauses, arbitration provisions and predictable policy frameworks are essential to attract this level of capital but Namibia has seen 26 deep-water wells drilled in four years, an unprecedented rate for any frontier basin, thus there only a few changes that need to be made to drive this growth,” he said.
