A proposed 10% free-carry interest in Namibia’s mining sector could render about 80% of potential projects economically unviable, according to an independent study commissioned by the Chamber of Mines of Namibia.
The Chamber’s Chief Executive Officer, Veston Malango, said the Wood Mackenzie study assessed the competitiveness of Namibia’s fiscal regime as part of ongoing engagements with government on local ownership.
“The analysis demonstrates that the introduction of a 10% free-carry interest under the current fiscal framework would materially undermine project economics, rendering approximately 80% of potential mining projects in Namibia economically unviable. The study further confirmed that Namibia’s existing fiscal regime remains competitive when benchmarked against comparable global mining jurisdictions, providing a strong foundation for investment under current conditions,” he said.
Malango said the study was commissioned to provide a data-driven basis for policy discussions around local ownership and fiscal competitiveness.
“The study provides an objective, data-driven foundation to inform policy dialogue and to support constructive engagement on both the free-carry proposal and the wider local ownership debate. It also illustrates the effect of free carry under various scenarios of percentage thresholds and the corresponding impact on the investment climate, which is critical for informed decision-making,” he said.
He added that the findings have already been presented to senior officials from the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industries, Mines and Energy, and the National Planning Commission to support technical-level discussions.
“The engagements were deliberately positioned at a technical level to facilitate informed, evidence-based discussions on the implications of a free-carry interest for fiscal competitiveness, investment attractiveness and long-term sector sustainability. The outcomes are intended to support subsequent policy deliberations and assist government in developing a balanced and coherent position on local ownership,” he said.
The developments come as the Namibian government pushes for a minimum 10% free-carry interest in all new mining and energy projects.
The policy, outlined in the draft Mineral Resources Development Bill and a related minerals agreement released for public comment between 2024 and 2025, would grant the state-owned Epangelo Mining a no-cost equity stake, funded through the dilution of investor shareholdings rather than direct state payments.
The proposed 10% free carry applies specifically to new projects, positioning Epangelo to hold the government’s interest alongside existing stakes, including its shareholding in Swakop Uranium and other operations. It forms part of broader reforms that include tighter ministerial oversight of mining ownership changes and alignment with frameworks such as the New Equitable Economic Empowerment Framework.
Meanwhile, Chamber of Mines President George Botshiwe said independent analysis indicates that, if key regulatory bottlenecks are resolved and policy certainty restored, the mining sector could unlock about 18,000 new jobs and attract an estimated US$2.68 billion in capital investment.
“This is not theoretical potential, but investment currently constrained by regulatory delays, permitting inefficiencies and policy ambiguity that must be urgently addressed,” he said.
Botshiwe warned that global exploration capital is increasingly flowing to jurisdictions offering speed, certainty and competitiveness.
“If Namibia does not act decisively to resolve outstanding policy and legislative matters and streamline licensing processes, the country risks losing critical exploration inflows, with the cost of inaction measured in forgone projects, jobs and economic growth,” he said.
