The Namibian portion of the Orange Sub-basin has recorded a 60% success rate for high-impact wells since 2022, well above the 16% average across other African frontier basins, according to the African Energy Chamber.
The Chamber noted that 12 high-impact wells drilled in Namibia during this period resulted in discoveries, reflecting a technical success ratio of over 30%.
When considering the Orange Sub-basin alone, the success rate rises to around 60%, making it one of the continent’s most active exploration frontiers.
“In less than four years, just over 6 billion barrels of oil equivalent (Bboe) have been discovered in Namibia at a pace comparable to Guyana. TotalEnergies, Shell, Galp and Rhino Resources have all found success in this basin,” the African Energy Chamber’s State of the African Energy 2026 Outlook Report said.
The Chamber said Africa’s high-impact exploration continues to deliver significant discoveries, with 8.5 Bboe found between 2021 and July 2025.
Of this total, about 7.4 Bboe came from wells drilled in frontier or immature basins, with nearly 95% located in Namibia’s Orange Sub-basin and Côte d’Ivoire’s Tano Basin.
It added that early entrants into frontier or immature basins benefit from lower geological risk perception and often secure the most strategic acreage on favourable fiscal terms.
“This dynamic has been evident in Namibia, where discoveries have drawn significant exploration capital and renewed industry interest in nearby underexplored sub-basins,” the Chamber said.
According to the report, TotalEnergies is preparing to drill the Olympe prospect in Block 2912 (PEL 091), at a water depth of around 3,200 metres, targeting 300–600 million barrels of oil based on volumetric data from the Venus discovery.
Rhino Resources, working in partnership with Azule Energy, is also preparing to spud the Volans-1X well, identified as a key target with significant development potential.
“Both the Olympe and Volans wells will be closely monitored. While TotalEnergies’ plans may be impacted by the Marula-1X failure south of Venus, Volans is expected to enable more efficient oil extraction compared to previous discoveries,” the Chamber stated.
The report also flagged additional frontier opportunities across the continent, including the ultra-deep-water Congo Fan in Angola, the Gabon–Douala Deep Sea Basin offshore São Tomé and Príncipe, the Namibe Basin in Namibia and Angola, the Herodotus Basin offshore Egypt, and the offshore portion of the Sitre Basin.
The Chamber concluded that Namibia’s exploration record highlights the continued importance of frontier basins in shaping Africa’s energy future.
“With two major wells expected before the end of 2025 and significant running room remaining in both the Orange Sub-basin and Côte d’Ivoire–Tano Basin, the continent is set to attract further investment and maintain momentum in oil and gas discovery,” it said
